Gasoline prices in 2026 remain highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions and refinery capacity utilization. While the global shift toward EVs is gradually eroding long-term demand, seasonal "driving season" spikes and OPEC+ production quotas continue to dictate short-term volatility.

Current Trends

Refinery Margins: High "crack spreads" in the US Gulf Coast and Singapore have kept retail prices elevated despite stable crude oil prices.

Seasonal Volatility: As we enter Q2 2026, the transition to "Summer Grade" gasoline (lower RVP) has added an estimated $0.15–$0.25 per gallon to production costs.

Regional Variance: Average US Retail Gasoline prices are hovering around $3.45–$3.70 per gallon, while European prices remain significantly higher due to carbon taxes.